Return On Investment

An enterprise starts with the hope of a return on its investment. For a start-up, this is often envisioned on a spreadsheet, with the initial revenues being smaller than the initial expenses creating losses; however, the revenues increasing by some percentage and over time they outpace expenses to generate an attractive return on investment (ROI). While that is the typical story on paper; it's not reflected in the reality around us.

The World Population graph seems to show a linear growth like the one described in the above plan with some event happening in the late 1800's to suddenly make it change. Any idea what that historic event might have been?

If you haven't read the paper folding post, this may make a more sense if you do that. The graph shows natural, exponential growth. If we would change the time scale to end a century earlier, the curve would look the same, only the historic event would now appear to be in the late 1700's.  End another century earlier, and the momentous event still moves back with the new scaling.

There was no event that changed the World population growth rate. Population growth is an example of growth from feedback and this graph is what that curve will always looks like. Small victories in the beginning, remaining small for far longer than our linear minds can imagine, then accumulating faster than linear thinking can grasp.

The two mistakes we can make are to believe the smaller growth rate is failure or to not accept the higher growth rate as success and invest in necessary infrastructure to keep the feedback going. It takes a faith that the returns will really happen to avoid either downfall. Of course this growth doesn't go on forever. There are always limits to growth; however, some are just in our linear minds.

During the Beatles's era, Maharishi Mahesh Yogi, who may have been the subject of their song Fool on the Hill, challenged his followers with the claim that if the square root of 1% of a population practices Transcendental Meditation (TM), crime in the area would decrease. In 1993, TM followers came to Washington DC during a record heat wave (which correlates to increased crime) to create such a critical number. Crime decreased for the period of the experiment. After its conclusion, it increased again.

This is not unique to TM. The story has been repeated in countless endeavors where fools have believed in continuing to repeat something powerful and gentle until the feedback effects can finally be observed; or until their return on investment is finally realized. We live in a faithful (systematic) universe; just not a linear one.

Image credit: mattlemmon

Shaping the future

In President Obama's address to Congress on Healthcare this month, he reminded them that they came to Washington not to fear the future but to shape it. What an inspirational remark and what a great definition for an Active Investor. Active Investors are more than just business owners and professionals; they are the individuals who have made a decision not to fear their future but to take responsibility to shape it.

Once we get beyond the inspirational feelings of that remark, we're left with the reality of exactly how does one go about shaping their own future? For Congress and Healthcare, it involves agreeing to passing enabling legislation. What's involved for us as individuals?

We cannot know the future; however we can understand it through System Dynamics. Our core principle is structure will determine behavior. The future will play-out according to the structures at that time. Our nation will have better Healthcare if a better Healthcare system is in place. An Active Investor will have a more successful business if better business structures are in place.

Each day is a new opportunity to:
1) Faithfully respond to the needs currently presented to us, and
2) Imagine how we can build structures to be even better in the future.

This is a big step beyond "making money." This is building lasting value. The profits earned at any given time will be consumed; but the structures are a lasting value. We see this in business brokerage all the time. Business owners who have created structures cash out handsomely. Those that have just made money get by.

Shaping our future is building our structures. What marketing, sales, management, HR, compliance, fulfillment, etc. resources need to be in place for our complete success? This question is never conclusively answered in our expanding universe. The mere passage of time is enough to continually create new opportunities for everyone. New structures will first form in our minds and later find their way into our reality - shaping our future.

As for politics, our President's speech did affect me. I've decided to believe there is a viable solution to the nation's Healthcare problem. Congress only has to imagine it.

Image credit: dmitryku

Powerful Symbols of Structure

Today's performance is the result of the strategic resources we had available when we woke-up this morning. Toyota will build many more cars today than I will because they have the resources and intent to do so and I don't. On the other hand, Toyota's contribution to this posting will be a mere mention of their name. My contribution will be its creation because I have access to these resources.

Structure determines behavior. In our past we have intended certain results which has caused the accumulation of necessary resources to accomplish them. These resources for an Active Investor might include things like cash, reputation, customer base, staff, inventory, equipment, technology, supplier relationships, and so forth. What happens in the present is the unfolding result of the levels and structures of our current resources. This is why accounting and business valuations work in the present. We can accurately know our resources as they exist now. Forecasting future performance is another matter.

Financial methodologies are scalable to almost any level of detail complexity; however, they are often not well suited to deal with dynamic complexity. As we move out of the known present and into an unknowable future, resource levels will be dynamically affected. Things will generally not happen in a linear fashion like we tend to imagine. Understanding the dynamics of how we arrived at the present is far more valuable in forecasting than understanding the details. Unfortunately, the study of system dynamics is somewhat challenging (although if it's possible, an Active Investor will greatly benefit from taking a formal system dynamics course).

The rest of us take an intuitive shortcut. We look for symbols that indicate the underlying structure and use that to get clues about dynamics.

Experience in audit and business brokering have helped me develop a sense of symbols. Walking into a business the cars in the parking lot may be symbols that the owner (and therefore the business) is doing well. The maintenance is a symbol of their attention to detail. The decor may become symbolic of their perceived customer preferences.

For all the time and effort spent on marketing assets, it's often our symbols that communicate the most about us to others. They are most powerful communicators that indicate our structure and will be used by others to predict our future behaviors.

Our symbols are both advantageous and dangerous because they communicate instantly. And yet, we frequently are not even aware of what symbols we currently display. The Active Investor benefits from paying attention to them. It takes an examination of our structures to best see our symbols. By being alert to symbols in our markets, we learn both about others and how to better present ourselves.

Image credit: avixyz

Critical Point Analysis

Clockworks have long been metaphors for systems in general. They illustrate energy transformation, cyclical behaviors, information encoding, and much more. One aspect of systems they clearly illustrate is the existence of a critical point.

Imagine the power involved in controlling the heavy hands of a large tower clock. The drive gears must exert crushing force to keep the hands at exactly the correct position. A critical point analysis of the clockworks would be an effort to find a point in the system where the movement of those hands could be stopped with only the pressure from a single finger. In this example, it's the flywheel. Stop the flywheel and everything else halts. That's a critical point and it's the spot of greatest advantage to any planned system intervention.

Business is an incredibly complex system with hundreds of gears (relationships) that mesh together to make it work. The idea that a critical point may exist in a business is difficult to prove; but since the clockwork metaphor seems to be working, it's worth exploring. If there was a critical point in a business, how could we identify it? What would it look like?

Within the clockworks the parts with the greatest mass and largest energy requirements, the hands, are also also the slowest moving. Our critical point, the flywheel, has little mass but is in continual motion. The critical points exhibit speed and repetition but not a lot of substance.

These characteristics are what make ideas critical points. Once an idea starts to spread, the heavy hands of execution begin to move. Internet and advertising consultants tell us extended repetition of a message (the idea) is far more powerful than a single large presentation. A business works because the people involved believe in it.

Critical points have the same characteristics we've already found in the powerful creative forces of nature. They are Gentle, Powerful, and Repetitive. When we find a critical point and dedicate ourselves to it, like an Archimedes who has finally found his place to stand, we can move our world.

Image Credit: poltag

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Market Trust

Image by Lorenia via Flickr

Many believe a marketing program is successful if it raises the public's awareness of your product or service. Coach Roland in a May 31,2009 blog posting points out that we all have become saturated with messages trying to raise our awareness. Awareness alone won't lead to sales. He asserts our messages need to communicate what we intend to do to earn the market's trust. We have to do more to really get their attention.

Mature successful firms get most of their business from repeat customers or referrals from satisfied clients. Trust has been earned in prior dealings. Here the driver of continued success is the customer service staff. They are the guardians of market trust and need to be in close contact with the marketing staff. Social networking is providing marketing with a new generation of tools to measure customer service effectiveness and satisfaction. These departments work together to preserve existing trust.

Newer and smaller firms, more likely to be run by an Active Investor, may not have this kind of staff and or large base of past customers. Trust needs to be developed. How can a business reach out to the market in such a way that both trust and awareness are developed? A system dynamics approach is to look at trust as a resource, that is a stock of something that has a level that can go up and down, and then consider what are the drivers that will increase its level. Some rather universal drivers of trust are:

- Credentials: Are there authoritative "seals of approval" we can display to verify quality or competence?
- Appearance: Is our offering presented in such a way it creates an assumption of worth, or do we look mediocre?
- Recommendations: Do we understand and develop a history with those who may not purchase but still be in a position to recommend us?
- Concern: While Active Investors are typically always concerned for their customers, is this expressed in a way they can appreciate it? Do they feel we have really listened?
- Familiarity: Can we be remembered? Familiarity breeds business.
- Integrity: Is trust built into our business and personal decision making? Nothing develops trust more surely than personally being trustworthy.
- Assurances: Is there historical data or performance guarantees to factually support any measure of trust a prospect is considering granting us?

Each business is unique with its own ways to build trust. They are to be found at decision points where there is an opportunity to do the right thing or to be expedient. When you have first convinced yourself you'll always be doing what's best for your customer, you'll know what to do to further develop market trust.

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Properties of Value - Powerful, Gentle, and Repetitive

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The forces that create commercial value in a business have the same properties as those that create natural wonders. We find them to be Powerful, Gentle, and Repetitive. Erosion from the Colorado river is is neither loud nor threatening, yet it created the Grand Canyon.

There is no doubt that Bonnie and Clyde created cash flow with their business; however, it was cash flow without any Value for others. Contrast that to to their contemporary, Henry Ford. He neither invented the automobile nor forced the public to buy them. His genius was understanding how industrial-age forces could make them affordable. Year-by-year, model-by-model, plant-by-plant he built an organization that produced at lower and lower unit cost. It was powerful, gentle, and repetitive. Today this organization may become the last solvent US automotive manufacturer.

This is the kind of Value every Active Investor seeks in their business or profession. It starts with a sense of something that is Powerful. The Value to others (which translates as the real value of ownership) is directly related to where this sense of Power is located. Personal power produces cash, but not lasting (or salable) Value. Process or Organizational power produces both. Real power that addresses real needs doesn't require Force to permeate a market. It can be Gentle, as long as it's Repetitive.

Consider the activity of closing a sale. Is your product or service Powerful, that is does it use a proven process that will surely address a prospect's core need? If it does, getting to a close is a matter of communicating that value. This may take some repetition. It's not forceful; but its probably going to take several "messages". Here are the properties of value forming a powerful, gentle, repetitive closing process. Every really valuable business process will be similar in nature.

Our job, as Active Investors, is to be continually aligning with these powerful, gentle, and repetitive forces as they apply to our situation. The degree of our ultimate success is based on it.

Crossing a Mental Divide

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A traveler crossing the Rocky Mountains passes the Continental Divide. If they straddle this imaginary line they have an enormous, yet unseen power. Water poured on to the ground on one side will ultimately flow into the Pacific. Water poured inches away will flow into the Gulf of Mexico. This seemingly insignificant change will mandate the end result, regardless of all that happens to the water on its long journey.

This sensitivity to initial conditions is a common characteristic of natural systems. We are used to thinking about systems in more simplistic ways. A pendulum will ultimately come to rest at its lowest point, regardless of where the motion is started. There is no sensitivity to the initial conditions. It's an esy system to understand.

Because the motion of a pendulum always ends at a point, its dynamics have been called that of a point attractor. The end point doesn't attract like a magnet; but it acts that way. Next in complexity are two dimensional periodic attractors that don't end in a point, yet always repeat the same cycle. The rotation of the earth around its axis creates a daily periodic attractor. Adding a third dimension increases complexity again. The additional rotation of the earth around the sun is expressed as a torus (doughnut) attractor, which is what it looks like.

Those are the easy ones. What happens if more than 3 forces (dimensions) are in play? For most of history, these were called chaotic. They seemed to be beyond pattern or properties because of their complexity. Recent advancements in computers have enabled mathematicians to demonstrate this was a bad term. These systems do have properties, although some, like sensitivity to initial conditions, seemed strange at first. They have been called strange attractors and although they are extremely hard to visualize, understanding their emergent properties help us understand how the world really works.

Learning to appreciate both the order and the complexity of natural and social systems takes you across a mental Continental Divide. It is the single difference between developing a simple business solution versus a simplistic failure. An Active Investor develops a sense of caution and mental red lights begin to flash when any answer appear to be too quick and easy.

Sellers Remorse - The Greatest Exit Ever Told

This diagram summarizes many Exit Planning strategies. We've all experienced the fact that nothing goes on forever. There are limits to growth. This is due to the effect of Balancing loops as explained in System Dynamics. The diagram shows business growth leveling off as some limit to a resource is ultimately reached.

The optimal time for a business owner to move to their next challenge is before that happens. It's the "X" on the chart marked "Time to Exit." From this earlier position a Potential Growth possibility exits. A new ownership will change parameters and frequently delay the Balancing forces that result in the Actual Growth curve. The big issue at this point in time is that it feels like selling now is too soon. This is strange; but that's the wrong feeling you may get at the right time.

We can never know the future and can never know the exact time selling our business will yield the optimal result. What we can know is when it's time to move on to the next thing in our life, in spite of financially-based feelings.

The timing of the Easter story is striking when seen as an Exit. The crucifixion Christians celebrate on Easter is preceded by Palm Sunday. This day celebrates the triumphant entry of Jesus into Jerusalem, by all political and social standards the peak of His ministry to date.

Imagine the feelings that might have been experienced by Jesus and His followers as He Exits at this point. Everything seems to be going so well! Yet His mission is completing and He knows this is the right time. Unlike every other Jewish Prophet or King before Him, death will not limit the growth of His ministry. Defeating death will enable the greatest growth cycle of all history.

In the Garden of Gethsemane it may have felt to everyone like leaving too soon. That's not always a bad thing; it can be what the right timing feels like.

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Folding a piece of paper

Paper Folded Eight Times
Originally uploaded by Curis

Imagine having an infinitely flexible piece of paper. Now fold it in half. It's twice as thick. Folding that in half doubles the thickness again. If this was done forty more times, how high would the paper become? Think of your answer before reading any more. This is a favorite introductory exercise to the explanation of growth in System Dynamics that was a subject of The Active Investor's  first posting.

When I started, I was wondering how long it would take before a brand new blog (and blog author) would start to get feedback. Last week I was speaking with a leading DFW area commercial risk specialist, Javier Hernandez, and as we parted he mentioned enjoying his reading of The Active Investor. Feedback was first felt in week 9.

Why is this small comment such a big deal? Let's get back to paper folding to imagine the power of feedback cycles. How thick did you estimate the folded paper would become? If we assume the typical thickness of paper to be about 0.1mm, then after 42 folds the paper would be 440,ooo kilometers high. This would be higher than from here to the moon.

Of course, we just can't image that. Creating anything with feedback opens a door to incredible growth potential. While feedback is easily apparent with internet activities, it's the engine of all "word of mouth" marketing Active Investors seek. Our business plans and actions are best judged in the light of their potential feedback (there is both good and bad). Then as we begin to sense positive feedback, we can take heart that we're on the right track - possibly from here to the moon.

Feedback

The difference between things that grow and things that don't is feedback. Ecology maps nature as large circles with each member feeding the next until it returns to the starting point. Salesmen know customers, through word of mouth, create more customers. In any market, buyers create sellers, who attract more buyers, who create more sellers.

For years I studied business growth. With charts and graphs I tried to discover the Philosopher's Stone that would grow any business. Marketing, Finance, HR, Engineering, Continuous Improvement were all candidates. Yet none of these necessary disciplines were by themselves sufficient to create an engine capable of growing any client's business. What is at the center of growth?

I finally found it in the study of System Dynamics. If there is positive feedback, there is growth. If there is negative feedback, there is decline. Always.

Yesterday at Starbucks in Colleyville I meet with my C-Level Consulting associates. We were discussing the importance of getting together like this. They told me how much they enjoyed one of my past series of presentations on business consulting. One of them told me he was on the file server reviewing them just this past week. He found them a source of hope and inspiration.

That was feedback. Today I start this Blog.